Coastal flood simulation in sea rise scenarios in São João da Barra, RJ, Brazil
AbstractIdentifying wetlands in Coastal Zones (CZs) is essential for the development of management plans capable of minimizing the impacts associated with the increase of Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL). The objective of this work was to simulate the vulnerability and susceptibility to marine intrusion in São João da Barra/RJ, considering two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario´s for the period 2081-2100: "optimistic" (GMSL elevation from 0.26 to 0.55m) and "pessimistic" (0.45-0.82m). Using QGis 3.14.1® software, a database was built for the representation of landscape units and a weighting of floods variables. Of the 453.39 km2 of São João da Barra territory up to 193.01 km2 (42.60%) and 253.38 km2 (55.85%) can be flooded in the “optimistic” and “pessimistic” scenarios, respectively. The elevation in the 0.26-0.82m interval can render flooding up to 16.46 km2 (42.81%) of the 38.44 km2 of RPPN Caruara and up to 60% (11.52 km2) of the 19.20 km2 of Açu Port. The areas of greatest environmental vulnerability are concentrated in mangroves. The regions most economically affected in both situations are those where family farms live. Based on the results obtained, it is possible to conclude that due to its geological and environmental configurations, São João da Barra CZ´s is vulnerable to the elevation of the GMSL, with greater reflections on low urban and rural areas and in natural ecosystems. By 2100 the municipality may lose more than half of its territorial area and if contingency actions are not taken, there´ll be huge economic and environmental losses.
— Updated on 2022-06-23