Current Demographic Conditions and Future Scenarios in Mexico´s Coastal Zone

Resumen

Knowing the behavior of population dynamics in coastal areas is an essential element for its proper management. Using historical information, in this paper, estimates of the total population in the coastal states of Mexico are made up to the year 2050 with an analysis of the population dynamics in the coastal municipalities for the years 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015. According to the latest census, Mexican total population reach 102 million people in 2015 with 55.3 million (46 %) living in coastal states. The east coast, consisting of 6 states and 3,294 km of coastline, registered a total population of 18.4 million, while the west coast with 7,828 km of coastline and 11 states had a population of 36.9 million. In the 17 coastal states of Mexico, a total of 158 municipalities with direct access to the sea were registered in 2015, in which 18.9 million inhabitants lived. During the period 2010 to 2015 the highest relative population growth rates at state level were observed in: Quintana Roo (13.3%), Baja California Sur (11.8 %) and Campeche (9.4 %). In the 10 % most populated coastal municipalities lived 18.5% of the total coastal population (10.2 million). In 2015, the coastal municipality of Tijuana in Baja California State was the most populated in the coastal zone with 1.6 million inhabitants and the only one with more than one million people. The distribution of the population in the coastal municipalities is irregular along the coast, according to the number of inhabitants it showed: 9 municipalities between 0.5 and 1.6 million, 30 municipalities with more than 100,000 and less than 0.5 million, 101 counties among 10,000 and 100,000 and finally 18 municipalities with less than 10,000 people. In 15 years (2000-2015), 4 municipalities have increased their population by 100% or more: Solidaridad in Quintana Roo (229%), Los Cabos in Baja California Sur (173%), Bahía Banderas in Nayarit (151%) and Puerto Peñasco in Sonora (100%), prevailing in these localities activities related with international tourism. The population growth rate for the period 2010-2015 showed a deceleration compared to 2005-2010 period, possibly as a consequence of the violence that is experienced in several coastal municipalities, caused by the drug cartels. The results presented in this study give elements to the decision makers to strengthen the planning and management processes of the Mexican coastal zone in the medium term.